March 2023

Oyo 2023 Guber Election: The Mathematical Analysis

The governorship election in Oyo state this year 2023 is one which, to the keen observer is a important, if not more important than the recently concluded Presidential and National Assembly elections. The average Joe in Oyo state is more particular about who occupies “Agodi” for the next four years. While there are several parties and candidates jostling for the office- either as true contenders or mere pretenders, political climate in the state clearly and unequivocally indicates a two horse race between the incumbent, Eng. Oluseyi Abiodun Makinde popularly called GSM(and might be referred to in the course of this article) of the Peoples Democratic Party and Oloye (Senator) Teslim Kolawole Folarin of the All Progressive Congress. Going down memory lane, the Governor who emerged after an eleventh hour coalition against the APC and its candidate, Chief Bayo Adelabu (who is now contesting under the aegis of Accord Party) are now in the minority after losing out completely to APC and PDP in the last Presidential and assembly elections. Now that is history. Despite the fact that the APC won convincingly in the last elections with three senators and at least eight members of the house of representatives from a possible fourteen, they are the ones clamouring, trying desperately to form a coalition in order to wrestle power from GSM. This has nothing but clearly show how worthy, credible and popular the APC candidate is. As for the incumbent, it is a well documented fact that a lot of people within our generation and youthful circle are not a fan of his administration because while they expected so much after his emergence in 2019, to both consolidate on the achievements of previous administrations and also, amend their deficiencies, his scorecard shows that he really performed below expectations. It is therefore deeply pathetic that the other candidates have failed to clearly elucidate to the voting public, especially the masses how they intend to differently address the core issues affecting our very dear state. It is just so disheartening that the measurement of performances by any government in Oyo state is under the purviews of few political gladiators who have the masses in their pockets. This coming election will reveal whether these gladiators are still heavyweight punchers or merely paper tigers with their rumoured coalition. So, will this election be a chance to re-elect a leader, with new and young breed politicians which includes some friends and acquaintances establishing their own authority within there respective constituencies, or do we do business as usual ? Time will tell. Take it or leave it, the re-election of GSM will automatically make Ladoja (who has been retired from active politics but still a major underground influence) be joined by the likes of Elder Wole Ovelese, Azeem Gbolarumi , Oloye Olopoeyan, Alhaja Mulika, Eng. Femi Babalola, Hon. Festus Adegoke all of whom have since held talks Oloye Teslim Folarin in the last few days for a possible coalition to unseat the Governor. Interestingly, the biggest voices campaigning against GSM’s second coming to finally balance this simultaneous equation are none other than the aggrieved party members and the coalition faithfuls who expected and large bracket of addition and multiplications ended up getting division and subtractions. In this aspect, statistics, based on the mean, median, mode and range available shows that the governor actually goofed on rates, ratios and proportions on interests out to him. My take on it all is that the fate of this state should stop being decided by indices and set theories propounded by politicians (Minority) but by the common man (Majority). While going to the polls on the 18th of March, 2023. It is very important that we are guided by our conscience and not the influences of the political gladiators who will stop at nothing to ensure there is a division tailored to winning a majority to their sides at the detriment of you and I. Let the people decide because, vox populi vox dei.

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Governor Seyi Makinde Beware The Ides Of March

Most people do not realise that the Ides of March has a non-threatening history. Kalends, Nones and Ides were ancient markers used to reference dates in relation to lunar phases. Ides simply referred to the first new moon of a given month, which usually fell between the 13th and 15th. In fact, the Ides of March once signified the new year, which meant celebrations and rejoicing. However, the soothsayer’s warning to Julius Caesar in William Shakespeare play has not only branded the phrase, it also marked the phrase as a dark gloomy warning of eminent danger. In relation to Oyo State politics and the GSM factor, it is important that GSM is wary of all the hangers on around him. Some are appointed close allies and others are friends. GSM needs to investigate and carry out enhanced due diligence on some of these allies who follow him around. Some of these people are so far from reality that they believe they are GSM supporters, but their personal greed, arrogance and outright wickedness has become a major issue for the GSM brand. These people have directly and indirectly enriched themselves over the last three and a half years. The actions are a direct contradiction to the position which GSM himself tries to project to the masses. Governor Seyi Makinde presents himself as a man of the people, a man accountable to the people, a man that loves the people and a man ready to fight corruption. It is however so sad that there are a couple of major cases of corruption and financial mismanagement going on right under his nose. No one is sure if his is unaware, aware but likely scenarios or what then is the reason for the creating OYACA which is an agency established by the virtue of the Oyo State Anti-Corruption Agency cy Law, 2019. The activities of OYACA would plug revenue leaks in the government purse and stop the act of mismanagement of office by public office holders and government workers. Till date, there has never been a record of prosecution of any high profile case in the state. From what we see, GSM appears to be ‘unaware’, at least from his words and sometimes even his body language. His Excellency talks about the improvement of education in the claims that things are better than they were before he came into office state. Same in Health, Education and Security. However, the facts on ground do not appear to agree with his statements. HEALTH A good example is the Medical Outreach by Omituntun Initiative in the Diaspora (OID) and Seyi Makinde Volunteer in partnership with the Oyo State Ministry of Health held last December, 2022 in Adamasigba Stadium, with many state officials, hangers on and allies attending for the photo opportunity. In a State where Billions of Naira has been spent to supposedly rehabilitate the primary health centre (about 350 of them) across the state, you will think the government will partner with the sponsors of the Medical Outreach to publicise the rehabilitated primary health centres. Really the sensible thing to do would have been to use several primary health centres as venues of the outreach, thereby show casing the work of the government. They used the stadium, brought in several government officials and allies and then supposedly donated medical supplies to the state ministry of health. The question that should be asked is that if these government had improved the health facilities and health awareness, such outreach would not be necessary. Such programmes should be run by the opposition not the ruling party. We are all familiar with the usual practice of politicians seeking attention to carry out such programmes in other to get noticed in their efforts to be considered for a position in the future. In the area of health there was more audio work done than in real life. However, GSM can provide facts and figures, pictures by going to campaign in front of several of the rehabilitated and functioning primary health centres. EDUCATION In the area of education, at the primary level there are no obvious changes, GSM’s cancellation of the NGN3000.00 paid by the students is the major change at secondary level. Regarding education, there seems to be a whole lot of noise at the tertiary level. This however can be associated with the acquisition of the sole ownership of Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH) in Ogbomoso. Rehabilitation of old buildings is currently ongoing at several Polytechnics across the State. Oyo State they claim is becoming the centre of higher education. Even though they started poorly due to the initial choice of a commissioner in the ministry which was a colossal disaster. This is a man that is not known to have run any major organisation before becoming commissioner, and as such his tranfer or should we say demotion to the Ministry of Establishment became imminent. He was later moved to Ministry of Works (A Professor of Statistics) ? The people of the State particularly Ibadan can attest to his incompetence going by the state of the roads in the ancient city. Although, there are several major road projects going on in the State reliable source claim the Governor is directly handle these ‘deals’. And we are going to really do business going forward, we are better start by meaning them with right appointments in rightful positions. SECURITY In the area of security, there has been a couple of high-profile robberies, kidnappings, murders, and thugs going on rampage in the State under this government. Reliable sources also point to the obvious fact that a certain individual who can be considered as a major security risk is a close ally of the government and a regular visitor to the Governor’s house. The Amotekun security outfit championed by the Governor are poorly trained and there has been a few allegations of members being involved in crime. This will remain a problem until the government understand the importance of enhanced vetting of

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Oyo State Education System in Complete Free Fall

Roll back to the swearing in of Engr seyi Makinde on the 29th May 2019 where he told the good people of Oyo State that there will be no more NGN3000.00 fees paid in State secondary schools. He also said that it was unacceptable that Oyo state stood at No. 26 among the 36 States of the federation in terms of the overall national WAEC results. As a new governor he promised to move Oyo State to top ten in the national WAEC standing. To be fair to Governor Seyi Makinde, his first commissioner of education was a Professor of Statistics from Botswana and the current one is a lawyer. Books were bought for the students, after school classes were organised state-wide, some form of teacher training was organised and to top it all the budgetary allocation for education was increased drastically. Unfortunately, all these failed to have any effect on the WAEC results till date, in fact Oyo State has come out worse off. The main issue is that we have a governor that appears to throw money at a problem without strategic thinking and planning. The intention was honourable however, when you have the wrong personnel or ill-equipped personnel, and you invest in the wrong areas the outcome will be extremely poor no matter the amount of money spent. Some of the key achievements of the administration are that they built so many classrooms, employed thousands of teachers and ensured the return of thousands of out of school children to the classroom to mention a few. Looking at these on the surface, one will praise the Makinde led government. However, a closer look will show that these are cosmetic actions used to gloss over the deep decay of the Oyo State Educational system. Going back to the promise of moving Oyo state from 26th position in the national WAEC result ranking to 10th position, this is possible if properly planned over a set period. However, the governor set an unrealistic target of achieving this in his first year in office forgetting that educational achievement can be likened to the construction of a building in engineering. To have a solid building, the foundation is key. A solid foundation that is properly designed and thought through can hold a skyscraper. This is also true in education. The foundation is the nursery and primary school, the pillars and decking are the secondary while the roof is the university. The governor and the ministry of education in Oyo State is expecting students sitting WAEC to produce at a higher level even though the educational facilities within the state are basic at best or non-existent in many places. The State has planted cheap products but expect to harvest expensive products. This is impossible, and the high level of expectation may be linked to why some schools resorted to exam malpractices which has resulted in WAEC delisting over 50 secondary schools in Oyo State. As reported, the Oyo State government plans to sanction the schools involved, before the State government can sanction the schools, the government must show concrete evidence of the facilities provided to these schools. Do these schools have up to date science laboratories, can the governor, his commissioners and appointees place their children in these schools? If the answer to this question is negative, then the governor and his appointees should cover their faces in shame and share the blame. The current administration has had over 3 years to sort out the primary and secondary educational system in the state, but it is obvious they have failed. Thousands of teachers were employed according to the information put out by the administration, but no one knows what level of induction was given to these new teachers. There are several individuals in and around this administration that have international educational experience either as students or teachers, yet this has not reflected in the processes in the educational system. One will wonder how these new teachers were employed. Who interviewed them? Who vetted them? What probational period do they have? Who inspects their work? Does Oyo State have a standardised primary and secondary education system that cuts across the State? What can be done ? – Standardise the State educational system – there must be a State Model used in all schools in Oyo State. – Develop an up-to-date teacher training pack that is linked with the Oyo State Model which must be included in the Teacher training curriculum. This must be taught in all colleges of education and departments of education in Oyo State. – Develop a continuous professional development system specifically tailored to improvement of teaching within State schools, this should have a point system linked to staff appraisal and promotion. – Create the Oyo State Teachers register for vetting and to monitor training and development. The above are just a few of the processes required to bring the Oyo State education system into the 21st century. In the higher education sector, the Oyo State government has to decide what it wants to focus on. For example, the College of Agriculture and Technology Igbo-Ora should be upgraded to include an agribusiness training centre where all the latest agricultural innovations are available to practicing farmers and would be farmers. Tractors and all farming machinery must be available in college so people can learn safe use of agricultural equipment there. Oyo state must not send anymore youths to Nasarawa state, remember Oyo State lead and others follow.

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The Struggle for Liberalism in The New Nigeria Part 1

In this image is the incumbent Senate Majority Whip in person of Orji Uzor Kalu and the Senator representing Abia North senatorial zone in the red chamber. He has just won a reelection and positioned himself for a possible emergence as the Senate President in the 10th Senate. Kalu who was released in June 2020 from the custody of the Nigerian Correctional Service Kuje for defrauding the government of Abia State where he was a governor for 8 years using his company, Slok Nigeria Limited. He was convicted by the Lagos Division of the Federal High Court on Thursday, 5 December 2019 and sentenced to 12 years in prison for N7.65 billion fraud. While his reelection is a considered as a plus for the APC led administration, a successful and impactful penetrative adventure in the seemingly dominated region that has donated over 85% of the entire votes in the Presidential elections to the PDP between 2011 and 2019. It is however putting a lot of questions not only the party’s struggle for identity but also the thought process of the citizens and voters in that region by electing an ex-convict to power. It is yet to be known how the Peter Obi tsunami is not enough to stop the aba born industrialist and politician. In a contrasting election that saw a fellow underperformer Okezie Ikpeazu losing out and coming a distant third in the Abia South senatorial zone to the candidate of All Progressive Grand Alliance candidate Eyinnaya Abaribe. One would have thought the people of Abia North will do the same to a man whose corruption trial dated back to 2007 when the Economic Financial Crimes Commission(EFCC) first arrested him before the apex court finally ruled in 2016 that he stands trial in a legal battle that took 9years. From the years of Orji Uzor Kalu, to Theodore Orji and Okezie Ikpeazu. The people of Abia state are yet to witness any transformational development as it seen across neighboring states of Ebonyi and Enugu despite all of them serving two terms each and has held on to power for the past 24 years of our democratic governance.

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